Premium Methodology
How a pick makes the slate
Fixed rules on probability, price and data. Most fixtures don’t pass them.
≤12
picks a slate, one per match
67%+
model probability for SAFE
2
slates a week, Fri and Tue
How a pick is built
Research Intake
Bookmaker odds, form, injuries, lineups and rest days.
Probability
Bookmaker consensus blended with a Poisson goal model.
Price check
Parlay tickets, underdogs and extras must beat the market price.
Late check
The SAFE pick can be re‑checked on lineups before kickoff. The rest stay locked.
Risk Ladder
Separate rules, separate records
| Tier | Odds | Needs | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAFEMax 1 | 1.30–1.90 | 67%+ model probability, never a drawCounts in Core | Counts in Core |
| PARLAY2–4 legs | 1.35–1.95 | Each leg 62%+; ticket 22%+ combined and +1% EVEvery leg counts in Core | Every leg counts in Core |
| UNDERDOGMax 1 | 2.00+ | Our probability above the market’sTracked separately | Tracked separately |
| EXTRAMax 6 | 1.35–2.30 | Beats the market after an uncertainty marginTracked separately | Tracked separately |
3- and 4-leg parlays span at least two markets.
What every pick shows you
- Our probability
- Edge vs the market
- Confidence
- Odds and kickoff
SAFE, parlay and underdog picks add the case for and against.
How we keep score
- Core = SAFE + every parlay leg. Voids excluded.
- 1 unit on every pick and parlay ticket, at the published odds.
- Results settle early Tue and Fri (UTC).
- Every settled pick stays public, losses included.
Responsible staking: flat stakes, never chase losses. No pick is a certainty.
Ready to use the process?
Every pick with its numbers, twice a week.was $49 now $19 first month, then $49/month.
You’re on Premium.
Open your picks