Value and Kelly calculator
Enter a price and the probability you think is right. The calculator returns the edge, the expected value of the bet, and the full Kelly stake.
Edge is your probability minus the probability the price implies, in percentage points. A price of 2.75 implies 36.4%; if you think the real chance is 42%, the edge is 5.6 points.
Expected value turns that edge into money: the average profit per bet if your probability is correct and you made the same bet many times. A single result tells you nothing about whether the number was right.
Kelly is the stake that maximises long-run growth of a bankroll. It assumes your probability is accurate, and it is unforgiving when it is not: most people who use it stake a fraction of it, commonly a quarter or a half. When the price already implies more than your probability, Kelly is zero, which means no bet rather than a bet the other way.
All three depend entirely on your probability being honest. That is the hard part, and it is what our model is for.
See the same maths on real matches
Every pick we publish carries the model's probability, the odds we took and the settled result, losers included.
These calculators are for information only and are not betting advice. Nothing here predicts an outcome or promises a return. 18+, and only where sports betting is legal where you live. See our disclaimer.