LostBundesliga6 December 2025
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg prediction
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg, 6 December 2025: we published SC Freiburg Win at 1.98, model probability 58%. It lost (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
SC Freiburg Win
Match Result
1.98
Odds we published
Implied 51%
57.5%
Model probability
+6.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.