LostBundesliga12 September 2026
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen prediction
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen, 12 September 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 1.53, model probability 75%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.53
Odds we published
Implied 66%
75.4%
Model probability
+9.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.