LostUEFA Europa League16 September 2026
AC Milan vs Benfica prediction
AC Milan vs Benfica, 16 September 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 1.72, model probability 65%. It lost (0-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.72
Odds we published
Implied 58%
64.8%
Model probability
+6.6 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.