LostSerie A28 December 2025
AC Milan vs Verona prediction
AC Milan vs Verona, 28 December 2025: we published Verona Win at 8.68, model probability 17%. It lost (3-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Verona Win
Match Result
8.68
Odds we published
Implied 12%
16.8%
Model probability
+5.3 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost3-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.