LostUEFA Conference League18 December 2025
AEK Larnaca vs Shkendija prediction
AEK Larnaca vs Shkendija, 18 December 2025: we published Shkendija Win at 5.84, model probability 25%. It lost (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Shkendija Win
Match Result
5.84
Odds we published
Implied 17%
24.9%
Model probability
+7.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.