LostLa Liga2 May 2026
Alaves vs Athletic Club prediction
Alaves vs Athletic Club, 2 May 2026: we published Home or Draw at 1.49, model probability 70%. It lost (2-4). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Home or Draw
Double Chance
1.49
Odds we published
Implied 67%
70.5%
Model probability
+3.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-4
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.