LostLa Liga14 December 2025
Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction
Alaves vs Real Madrid, 14 December 2025: we published Alaves Win at 5.41, model probability 28%. It lost (1-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Alaves Win
Match Result
5.41
Odds we published
Implied 18%
27.9%
Model probability
+9.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.