WonPremier League27 December 2025
Arsenal vs Brighton prediction
Arsenal vs Brighton, 27 December 2025: we published Arsenal Win at 1.39, model probability 67%. It won (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Arsenal Win
Match Result
1.39
Odds we published
Implied 72%
67.3%
Model probability
-4.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.