LostPremier League25 January 2026
Arsenal vs Manchester United prediction
Arsenal vs Manchester United, 25 January 2026: we published Arsenal Win at 1.57, model probability 66%. It lost (2-3). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Arsenal Win
Match Result
1.57
Odds we published
Implied 64%
65.9%
Model probability
+2.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-3
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.