LostSerie A30 November 2025
AS Roma vs Napoli prediction
AS Roma vs Napoli, 30 November 2025: we published AS Roma Win at 2.60, model probability 45%. It lost (0-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
AS Roma Win
Match Result
2.60
Odds we published
Implied 38%
44.7%
Model probability
+6.3 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.