WonPremier League21 December 2025
Aston Villa vs Manchester United prediction
Aston Villa vs Manchester United, 21 December 2025: we published Aston Villa Win at 2.11, model probability 52%. It won (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Aston Villa Win
Match Result
2.11
Odds we published
Implied 47%
52.2%
Model probability
+5.0 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.