WonPremier League30 November 2025
Aston Villa vs Wolves prediction
Aston Villa vs Wolves, 30 November 2025: we published Aston Villa Win at 1.49, model probability 73%. It won (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Aston Villa Win
Match Result
1.49
Odds we published
Implied 67%
73.0%
Model probability
+5.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.