LostLa Liga6 December 2025
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid, 6 December 2025: we published Atletico Madrid Win at 2.22, model probability 54%. It lost (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Atletico Madrid Win
Match Result
2.22
Odds we published
Implied 45%
54.2%
Model probability
+9.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.