LostLa Liga13 December 2025
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia prediction
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia, 13 December 2025: we published Valencia Win at 10.32, model probability 18%. It lost (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Valencia Win
Match Result
10.32
Odds we published
Implied 10%
18.5%
Model probability
+8.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.