LostLigue 123 November 2025
Auxerre vs Lyon prediction
Auxerre vs Lyon, 23 November 2025: we published Lyon Win at 1.99, model probability 52%. It lost (0-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Lyon Win
Match Result
1.99
Odds we published
Implied 50%
52.2%
Model probability
+1.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.