LostLigue 17 December 2025
Auxerre vs Metz prediction
Auxerre vs Metz, 7 December 2025: we published Metz Win at 3.69, model probability 38%. It lost (3-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Metz Win
Match Result
3.69
Odds we published
Implied 27%
38.3%
Model probability
+11.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost3-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.