LostUEFA Conference League18 December 2025
AZ Alkmaar vs Jagiellonia prediction
AZ Alkmaar vs Jagiellonia, 18 December 2025: we published AZ Alkmaar Win at 1.55, model probability 66%. It lost (0-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
AZ Alkmaar Win
Match Result
1.55
Odds we published
Implied 65%
66.3%
Model probability
+1.6 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.