LostLa Liga29 November 2025
Barcelona vs Alaves prediction
Barcelona vs Alaves, 29 November 2025: we published Alaves Win at 13.28, model probability 13%. It lost (3-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Alaves Win
Match Result
13.28
Odds we published
Implied 8%
13.0%
Model probability
+5.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost3-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.