LostUEFA Champions League25 November 2025
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal prediction
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal, 25 November 2025: we published Villarreal Win at 4.03, model probability 39%. It lost (4-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Villarreal Win
Match Result
4.03
Odds we published
Implied 25%
39.1%
Model probability
+14.3 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost4-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.