WonUEFA Champions League8 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal prediction
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal, 8 September 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 1.46, model probability 71%. It won (3-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.46
Odds we published
Implied 69%
70.8%
Model probability
+2.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won3-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.