LostPremier League20 December 2025
Bournemouth vs Burnley prediction
Bournemouth vs Burnley, 20 December 2025: we published Bournemouth Win at 1.48, model probability 66%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Bournemouth Win
Match Result
1.48
Odds we published
Implied 68%
66.2%
Model probability
-1.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.