LostPremier League22 November 2025
Brighton vs Brentford prediction
Brighton vs Brentford, 22 November 2025: we published Brentford Win at 3.86, model probability 36%. It lost (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Brentford Win
Match Result
3.86
Odds we published
Implied 26%
36.4%
Model probability
+10.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.