WonPremier League10 October 2026
Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction
Chelsea vs Bournemouth, 10 October 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 1.47, model probability 83%. It won (5-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.47
Odds we published
Implied 68%
82.6%
Model probability
+14.7 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won5-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.