LostSerie A14 February 2026
Como vs Fiorentina prediction
Como vs Fiorentina, 14 February 2026: we published Como Win at 1.74, model probability 62%. It lost (1-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Como Win
Match Result
1.74
Odds we published
Implied 58%
62.3%
Model probability
+4.7 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.