LostSerie A4 May 2026
Cremonese vs Lazio prediction
Cremonese vs Lazio, 4 May 2026: we published Under 2.5 at 1.71, model probability 68%. It lost (1-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Under 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.71
Odds we published
Implied 59%
67.5%
Model probability
+8.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.