WonUEFA Conference League12 March 2026
Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca prediction
Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca, 12 March 2026: we published Under 2.5 at 2.26, model probability 67%. It won (0-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Under 2.5
Over/Under Goals
2.26
Odds we published
Implied 44%
67.1%
Model probability
+22.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won0-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.