LostLa Liga3 January 2026
Elche vs Villarreal prediction
Elche vs Villarreal, 3 January 2026: we published Elche Win at 3.21, model probability 46%. It lost (1-3). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Elche Win
Match Result
3.21
Odds we published
Implied 31%
45.7%
Model probability
+14.6 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-3
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.