LostFIFA World Cup1 July 2026
England vs Congo DR prediction
England vs Congo DR, 1 July 2026: we published Under 2.5 at 1.82, model probability 58%. It lost (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Under 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.82
Odds we published
Implied 55%
58.4%
Model probability
+3.6 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.