WonFIFA World Cup17 June 2026
England vs Croatia prediction
England vs Croatia, 17 June 2026: we published England Win at 1.70, model probability 58%. It won (4-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
England Win
Match Result
1.70
Odds we published
Implied 59%
57.6%
Model probability
-1.1 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won4-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.