WonBundesliga23 November 2025
FC St. Pauli vs Union Berlin prediction
FC St. Pauli vs Union Berlin, 23 November 2025: we published Union Berlin Win at 2.93, model probability 45%. It won (0-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Union Berlin Win
Match Result
2.93
Odds we published
Implied 34%
45.2%
Model probability
+11.1 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won0-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.