WonUEFA Conference League27 November 2025
Fiorentina vs AEK Athens FC prediction
Fiorentina vs AEK Athens FC, 27 November 2025: we published AEK Athens FC Win at 5.04, model probability 34%. It won (0-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
AEK Athens FC Win
Match Result
5.04
Odds we published
Implied 20%
33.7%
Model probability
+13.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won0-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.