LostBundesliga21 November 2025
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim, 21 November 2025: we published 1899 Hoffenheim Win at 2.65, model probability 48%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
1899 Hoffenheim Win
Match Result
2.65
Odds we published
Implied 38%
48.0%
Model probability
+10.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.