LostBundesliga21 December 2025
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli prediction
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli, 21 December 2025: we published FC St. Pauli Win at 4.04, model probability 31%. It lost (0-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
FC St. Pauli Win
Match Result
4.04
Odds we published
Implied 25%
31.3%
Model probability
+6.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.