WonUEFA Conference League6 November 2025
FSV Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina prediction
FSV Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina, 6 November 2025: we published FSV Mainz 05 Win at 2.21, model probability 46%. It won (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
FSV Mainz 05 Win
Match Result
2.21
Odds we published
Implied 45%
46.2%
Model probability
+0.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.