LostSerie A9 November 2025
Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction
Genoa vs Fiorentina, 9 November 2025: we published Genoa Win at 2.77, model probability 38%. It lost (2-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Genoa Win
Match Result
2.77
Odds we published
Implied 36%
37.9%
Model probability
+1.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.