LostFIFA World Cup25 June 2026
Japan vs Sweden prediction
Japan vs Sweden, 25 June 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 1.90, model probability 72%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.90
Odds we published
Implied 53%
71.6%
Model probability
+19.0 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.