LostLigue 126 April 2026
Le Havre vs Metz prediction
Le Havre vs Metz, 26 April 2026: we published Le Havre Win at 1.64, model probability 67%. It lost (4-4). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Le Havre Win
Match Result
1.64
Odds we published
Implied 61%
66.5%
Model probability
+5.7 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost4-4
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.