LostUEFA Conference League11 December 2025
Lech Poznan vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
Lech Poznan vs FSV Mainz 05, 11 December 2025: we published Lech Poznan Win at 2.90, model probability 48%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Lech Poznan Win
Match Result
2.90
Odds we published
Implied 34%
47.6%
Model probability
+13.1 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.