WonPremier League1 May 2026
Leeds vs Burnley prediction
Leeds vs Burnley, 1 May 2026: we published Leeds Win at 1.38, model probability 74%. It won (3-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Leeds Win
Match Result
1.38
Odds we published
Implied 72%
73.7%
Model probability
+1.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won3-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.