LostLigue 121 February 2026
Lens vs Monaco prediction
Lens vs Monaco, 21 February 2026: we published Lens Win at 1.66, model probability 66%. It lost (2-3). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Lens Win
Match Result
1.66
Odds we published
Implied 60%
66.5%
Model probability
+6.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-3
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.