WonLigue 114 December 2025
Lens vs Nice prediction
Lens vs Nice, 14 December 2025: we published Lens Win at 1.48, model probability 78%. It won (2-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Lens Win
Match Result
1.48
Odds we published
Implied 68%
78.1%
Model probability
+10.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won2-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.