LostPremier League1 November 2025
Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction
Liverpool vs Aston Villa, 1 November 2025: we published Aston Villa Win at 4.94, model probability 26%. It lost (2-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Aston Villa Win
Match Result
4.94
Odds we published
Implied 20%
26.1%
Model probability
+5.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.