LostUEFA Champions League4 November 2025
Liverpool vs Real Madrid prediction
Liverpool vs Real Madrid, 4 November 2025: we published Real Madrid Win at 2.62, model probability 41%. It lost (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Real Madrid Win
Match Result
2.62
Odds we published
Implied 38%
41.1%
Model probability
+3.0 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.