LostLigue 117 May 2026
Lorient vs Le Havre prediction
Lorient vs Le Havre, 17 May 2026: we published Home or Draw at 1.47, model probability 71%. It lost (0-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Home or Draw
Double Chance
1.47
Odds we published
Implied 68%
71.3%
Model probability
+3.3 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.