WonLigue 130 November 2025
Lorient vs Nice prediction
Lorient vs Nice, 30 November 2025: we published Lorient Win at 2.45, model probability 50%. It won (3-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Lorient Win
Match Result
2.45
Odds we published
Implied 41%
49.6%
Model probability
+8.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won3-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.