LostPremier League24 May 2026
Manchester City vs Aston Villa prediction
Manchester City vs Aston Villa, 24 May 2026: we published Under 2.5 at 3.36, model probability 42%. It lost (1-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Under 2.5
Over/Under Goals
3.36
Odds we published
Implied 30%
42.4%
Model probability
+12.7 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.