LostPremier League20 September 2026
Manchester City vs Sunderland prediction
Manchester City vs Sunderland, 20 September 2026: we published Under 2.5 at 2.34, model probability 59%. It lost (5-3). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Under 2.5
Over/Under Goals
2.34
Odds we published
Implied 43%
59.1%
Model probability
+16.3 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost5-3
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.