WonPremier League15 March 2026
Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Manchester United vs Aston Villa, 15 March 2026: we published Manchester United Win at 1.73, model probability 61%. It won (3-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Manchester United Win
Match Result
1.73
Odds we published
Implied 58%
60.9%
Model probability
+3.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won3-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.